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INTRODUCTION / REPORT MAP

By looking at weather forecast maps we can know if it´s going to rain and how much, but from a market point of view, there are several meaningful questions that cannot be addressed by simply looking at the maps. For example one may ask the following questions:

Are the models adding, maintaining or removing the rains from the previous runs [What are the different models (GFS, ECMWF) estimating for each period? Which are the differences (regions and timing)? * When are the rains occurring en each region? * Did the rains really materialized as expected? In which regions it rained more/less than expected?

Another problem that arrises is that information is dispersed, so analysts and traders needs to go from one website to another to get the relevant information on time or wait for reports that have only pieces of the information.

THIS REPORT AIMS TO PUT THE FORECAST MAPS IN PERSPECTIVE ANSWERING THE RELEVANT QUESTIONS THAT MAY ARRISE AND ADD RELEVANT COMPLEMENTARY INFORMATION IN ORDER TO IMPROVE THE ANALYSIS ON CROP PRODUCTION, AND THUS THE READING OF THE MARKET.

CURRENT SITUATION

RAINS DURING THE LAST 20 DAYS PER REGION

AND HOW DID THE MODELS PERFORM?

MODEL VERIFICATION (00Z Run) FOR THE LAST 30 days

Southern Region Stations

Difference between forecast for the next 3 days period vs Realized rains: above cero means rains underperformed and below cero means rains over performed

Central Region Stations

Northern Region Stations

IMPACT ON CROPS

SOIL MOISTURE & CHANGE VS LAST DECADE

Source: http://www3.smn.gob.ar/serviciosclimaticos/?mod=agro&id=3

NEEDED PRECIPITATION FOR DIFFERENT SCENARIOS

PRECIPITATION NEEDED TO HAVE GOOD CONDITIONS & TO AVOID START OF DRYNESS

Source: http://www3.smn.gob.ar/serviciosclimaticos/?mod=agro&id=3

PRECIPITATION NEEDED TO AVOID DRYNESS & TO AVOID EXCESSIVE MOISTURE

Source: http://www3.smn.gob.ar/serviciosclimaticos/?mod=agro&id=3

WHAT ARE THE MODELS FORECASTING FOR THE SHORT AND LONG TERM?

BASIC FORECAST MAPS

SMN 1-7 PRECIPITATION & ANOMALY

SMN 1-7 MEAN TEMPERATURE & ANOMALY

SMN 8-14 PRECIPITATION & ANOMALY

SMN 8-14 MEAN TEMPERATURE & ANOMALY

LONG TERM PRECIPITATION & TEMPERATURE FORECASTS

QUARTERLY PRECIPITATION & TEMPERATURE FORECAST (SMN)

Source: http://www3.smn.gob.ar/serviciosclimaticos/?mod=agro&id=3

QUARTERLY PRECIPITATION & TEMPERATURE FORECAST (IRI)

Source: http://www3.smn.gob.ar/serviciosclimaticos/?mod=agro&id=3

PRECIPITATION FORECAST PER REGION:GFS & ECMWF ENSEMBLE

00Z RUN

06Z RUN

12Z RUN

18Z RUN

PRECIPITATION FORECAST EVOLUTION

1-5 DAYS PERIOD

00z MODELS

06z MODELS

12z MODELS

18z MODELS

6-10 DAYS PERIOD

00z MODELS

06z MODELS

12z MODELS

18z MODELS

11-15 DAYS PERIOD

00z MODELS

06z MODELS

12z MODELS

18z MODELS

ENSO PROBABLITIES & MODELS

2019-10-18