INTRODUCTION / REPORT MAP
By looking at weather forecast maps we can know if it´s going to rain and how much, but from a market point of view, there are several meaningful questions that cannot be addressed by simply looking at the maps. For example one may ask the following questions:
Are the models adding, maintaining or removing the rains from the previous runs [What are the different models (GFS, ECMWF) estimating for each period? Which are the differences (regions and timing)? * When are the rains occurring en each region? * Did the rains really materialized as expected? In which regions it rained more/less than expected?
Another problem that arrises is that information is dispersed, so analysts and traders needs to go from one website to another to get the relevant information on time or wait for reports that have only pieces of the information.
THIS REPORT AIMS TO PUT THE FORECAST MAPS IN PERSPECTIVE ANSWERING THE RELEVANT QUESTIONS THAT MAY ARRISE AND ADD RELEVANT COMPLEMENTARY INFORMATION IN ORDER TO IMPROVE THE ANALYSIS ON CROP PRODUCTION, AND THUS THE READING OF THE MARKET.
CURRENT SITUATION
LAST WEEK PRECIPITATION & ANOMALY
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/Argentina/index.shtml
LAST FORTNIGHT PRECIPITATION & ANOMALY
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/Argentina/index.shtml
LAST MONTH PRECIPITATION & ANOMALY
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/Argentina/index.shtml
RAINS DURING THE LAST 20 DAYS PER REGION
AND HOW DID THE MODELS PERFORM?
MODEL VERIFICATION (00Z Run) FOR THE LAST 30 days
Southern Region Stations
Difference between forecast for the next 3 days period vs Realized rains: above cero means rains underperformed and below cero means rains over performed
Central Region Stations
Northern Region Stations
IMPACT ON CROPS
SOIL MOISTURE & CHANGE VS LAST DECADE
Source: http://www3.smn.gob.ar/serviciosclimaticos/?mod=agro&id=3
NEEDED PRECIPITATION FOR DIFFERENT SCENARIOS
PRECIPITATION NEEDED TO HAVE GOOD CONDITIONS & TO AVOID START OF DRYNESS
Source: http://www3.smn.gob.ar/serviciosclimaticos/?mod=agro&id=3
PRECIPITATION NEEDED TO AVOID DRYNESS & TO AVOID EXCESSIVE MOISTURE
Source: http://www3.smn.gob.ar/serviciosclimaticos/?mod=agro&id=3
WHAT ARE THE MODELS FORECASTING FOR THE SHORT AND LONG TERM?
BASIC FORECAST MAPS
GFS 1-7 PRECIPITATION & ANOMALY
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/Argentina/index.shtml
SMN 1-7 PRECIPITATION & ANOMALY
SMN 1-7 MEAN TEMPERATURE & ANOMALY
GFS 8-14 PRECIPITATION & ANOMALY
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/Argentina/index.shtml
SMN 8-14 PRECIPITATION & ANOMALY
SMN 8-14 MEAN TEMPERATURE & ANOMALY
LONG TERM PRECIPITATION & TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
QUARTERLY PRECIPITATION & TEMPERATURE FORECAST (SMN)
Source: http://www3.smn.gob.ar/serviciosclimaticos/?mod=agro&id=3
QUARTERLY PRECIPITATION & TEMPERATURE FORECAST (IRI)
Source: http://www3.smn.gob.ar/serviciosclimaticos/?mod=agro&id=3
PRECIPITATION FORECAST PER REGION:GFS & ECMWF ENSEMBLE
00Z RUN
06Z RUN
12Z RUN
18Z RUN
PRECIPITATION FORECAST EVOLUTION
1-5 DAYS PERIOD
00z MODELS
06z MODELS
12z MODELS
18z MODELS
6-10 DAYS PERIOD
00z MODELS
06z MODELS
12z MODELS
18z MODELS
11-15 DAYS PERIOD
00z MODELS
06z MODELS
12z MODELS
18z MODELS
ENSO PROBABLITIES & MODELS
